Bali in numbers: demand grows, the coast does not.
The case for investing in Bali rests on one curve: tourist arrivals. Here it is in full, year by year, with its source. And below it, what that curve does and does not do for one specific villa.
How many tourists arrive in Bali, year by year
In 2013 it was 3.26 million people. In 2024 it was 6.30 million, already past the pre-pandemic record. The projection for 2029 is 11.10 million. This is the full series, with the bad years left in.
| Year | Arrivals | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 3.26M | Start of the series |
| 2014 | 3.76M | |
| 2015 | 4.00M | |
| 2016 | 4.93M | |
| 2017 | 5.70M | |
| 2018 | 6.07M | |
| 2019 | 6.28M | Pre-pandemic record |
| 2020 | 1.05M | Borders closed |
| 2021 | 0.05M | The blank year: 50,000 people |
| 2022 | 2.15M | Reopening |
| 2023 | 5.27M | Recovery |
| 2024 | 6.30M | 2019 record beaten |
| 2025 | 7.10M | Projection |
| 2026 | 8.00M | Projection |
| 2027 | 8.90M | Projection |
| 2028 | 10.05M | Projection |
| 2029 | 11.10M | Projection |
What the pandemic did to the curve
2021 is the figure worth looking at before you invest: 50,000 arrivals in a whole year, against 6.28 million two years earlier. A market that lives off the plane can go to zero. Then the other half of the story: it took three years to beat the 2019 record again. If that curve keeps you awake, this asset is not for you, and we would rather say so here.
The other side: Bali has 1.4 tourists per resident
It is the quickest way to grasp the size of tourism on the island. This is not a place with tourism; it is a place made of tourism. That is why three booking channels run all year and why a short-let villa is an ordinary product here, not an oddity.
Demand rises; buildable coast on the Bukit does not
The Bukit is a limestone plateau dropping straight into the sea. The front line of coast is the size it is, and beaches cannot be built: Bingin, Balangan, Melasti and Padang Padang will stay where they are. New villas can appear anywhere on the island; the coastline that fills them does not grow. That part of the case does not depend on any projection.
What the curve means for one villa: on its own, almost nothing
More tourists on the island do not fill your villa. Area, price and management do. This is the gap, our own villas against the average of their market, measured with PriceLabs:
| Our villa | Area | Our occupancy | Area average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santanyi | Ungasan | 90% | 56% |
| Moraira | Bingin | 89% | 83% |
| Arrecife | Melasti | 85% | 62% |
| Kembali | Balangan | 75% | 58% |
Same coast, same tourism, up to 34 points of difference. How that is done is set out step by step in the villa management guide.
When the Bukit fills up
The dry season, April to October, is the strongest, and then there is a short and very predictable peak at Christmas. What changes from one beach to the next is how hard that peak bites:
- Melasti. The highest price peak on the Bukit: 22.6% more between 26 December and 1 January. And the lowest seasonality of the year, with steady demand.
- Balangan. The strongest occupancy peak: 13.3% more from 30 December to 3 January.
- Bingin. A price peak of 14.2% between 21 December and 3 January.
- Ungasan. The mildest of the four, between 7.1% and 9.4%.
The numbers for each area, with market depth and the median nightly rate, are on the area pages. Occupancy and rates for Uluwatu, Canggu, Seminyak, Ubud and Nusa Dua are compared in the where-to-invest guide, with the full table, including the rows that do not favour us.
What these figures do not say
- A projection is not a contract. The years 2025 to 2029 are public-body forecasts, not settled data. A visa change, an eruption or a flight crisis moves the curve.
- Arrivals are not your occupancy. Between the tourist landing and a booking in your villa sit a price, photos, reviews and three channels that have to be worked.
- The island average is not your neighbourhood average. Inside the Bukit there are 34 points between two beaches 20 minutes apart.
What people ask us most.
How many tourists visit Bali each year?
6.30 million international arrivals in 2024, above the 6.28 million record of 2019. The public-body projection for 2029 is 11.10 million. Source: BPS Bali, Indonesia's Ministry of Tourism and UNWTO.
Is Bali overbuilt?
It depends on the area, and the honest answer is that some are busier than others. Canggu and Seminyak are the most built up and still perform very well. On the Bukit the front-line land is genuinely limited, because it is a limestone plateau dropping into the sea. The numbers for each area are in the where-to-invest guide.
Can the 11.10 million projection for 2029 be trusted?
It is a public-body projection, not a guarantee. It is useful for the trend, not for doing your sums. We work out returns with the real occupancy of our villas today, not with the 2029 forecast.
When is high season in Bali?
April to October, the dry season, is the strongest. After that comes a short peak over Christmas and New Year, which lifts rates 22.6% in Melasti and occupancy 13.3% in Balangan, per PriceLabs as of September 2026.
Does more tourism on the island mean more occupancy for my villa?
Not on its own. Four of our villas sit on the same coast and run from 75% to 90% occupancy, with market averages between 56% and 83%. Area, price and management move the number more than the tourist total.
The other guides.
Want it with your own numbers?
We show you the villas available, what each one earns today and what would be left for you, with our real figures in front of you. You talk to the developer, not to a salesperson.