Is Bali oversupplied with villas? What the data says.
Written by Nacho Jorrín, partner at Agmakina Group, building and managing villas in Uluwatu since 2019 · Reviewed 8 October 2026
It is one of the questions people ask most before they buy. The short answer: <b>it depends on the area and on the management</b>. Here is the data you can check, with its source, and what we do not know, said plainly.
There is no official count of villas in Bali, so nobody can say with numbers whether there are too many. What is measured is demand and occupancy: Bali had 6.30 million tourists in 2024, above the 2019 record, and average occupancy in Uluwatu areas runs from 57% to 83%. The honest answer is that it depends on the area and on how the villa is managed.
First, what nobody knows
There is no official, reliable count of rental villas in Bali, and many are not even registered. So you will not read "there are X villas and Y too many" here. Anyone who gives you that number without a source is selling a story. What can be measured is how many people arrive and how full the villas are.
Demand: more tourists every year
In 2013, 3.26 million international tourists arrived. In 2019, 6.28 million. In 2024, 6.30 million, already above the pre-pandemic record (BPS Bali and Indonesia's Ministry of Tourism). The official forecast for 2029 is 11.10 million. The full series is in Bali in numbers.
Occupancy: not the same everywhere
If the whole island were oversupplied, occupancy would be low everywhere. It is not. These are the 2025-26 market averages (AirDNA and Phocuswright, indicative ranges):
| Area | Average market occupancy |
|---|---|
| Canggu | 75-85% |
| Seminyak | 70-80% |
| Uluwatu | 68-78% |
| Ubud | 65-75% |
| Sanur and Nusa Dua | 60-70% |
This does not mean one area is better than another for you. Each has its own guests and its own entry price. We go through it in where to invest in Bali and in Canggu or Uluwatu.
Inside one area, management makes the difference
This is what gets ignored most. In Uluwatu, between July and September 2026, comparable villas in each area had this average occupancy and ours had this one (PriceLabs, 90 days):
| Area | Area average | Our villas |
|---|---|---|
| Bingin | 83% | 89% |
| Melasti | 63% | 88% |
| Balangan | 60% | 70% |
If there were too many villas for the tourists who arrive, a well-run villa would not sit 25 points above its area average, as in Melasti. What you see is something else: the villa that fills is the one with a good price every day, listed on several platforms, with care for reviews. It is explained in villa management in Bali. The whole report is in Uluwatu villa occupancy.
Supply: what is changing in 2026
In 2026 the Bali government began to put rentals in order: platforms remove unlicensed listings from 1 August 2026 (about 1,600, per CNN Indonesia on 29 May 2026), and since September 2025 no villa permits are given on productive farmland. No general moratorium is confirmed. What it means for you, with sources, is in Bali 2026: what changed.
So, are there too many villas or not?
- On the whole island: there is no data to say. What you see is record demand and occupancy from 57% to 83% depending on the Uluwatu area.
- Unlicensed, badly managed or doubtful-land villas: that is where the risk is, and where they fill least.
- A villa with permits, in an area with demand, with professional management: it keeps occupancy high, also when there is more supply around.
What to check before you buy: permits up to date, an area with demand all year, and a manager who shows the real occupancy of their villas, not a promise. Our reference is +80% occupancy and a 10-14% annual return target, which is a target, not a guarantee.
What people ask us most.
Are there too many villas in Bali?
There is no official count of villas, so it cannot be said with numbers. What is measured: Bali had 6.30 million tourists in 2024, above the 2019 record, and average occupancy in Uluwatu areas runs from 57% to 83%.
What occupancy does a villa in Bali get?
It depends on the area. The 2025-26 market averages run from 60% to 85% (AirDNA and Phocuswright). In Uluwatu, our villas averaged 82% between July and September 2026, against 69% for their areas (PriceLabs, 90 days).
Is it a bad idea to buy a villa in Bali now?
It depends on the villa, not only on the moment. Check that it has permits up to date, that it is in an area with demand and that someone who shows real occupancy manages it. The steps are in the guide on how to buy a villa in Bali.
Will Bali stop giving villa permits?
No general moratorium is confirmed. What is confirmed is that since September 2025 no villa permits are given on productive farmland, by order of the governor.
Why does one villa fill more than the one next door?
Because of the price adjusted every day, being on several platforms at once and reviews. In Melasti our villas ran at 88% against 63% for the area between July and September 2026.
The other guides.
Want it with your own numbers?
We show you the villas available, what each one earns today and what would be left for you, with our real figures in front of you. You talk to the developer, not to a salesperson.